More on the Web2.0 Bubble

Posted by Jacob Harris Fri, 07 Oct 2005 20:46:00 GMT

It seems like I’m not the only person thinking about the Web2.0 hype in terms of the previous bubble. There have been two interesting articles posted on the subject, sparked by massive interest in the Web2.0 conference this year (for me, it’s an effect of finding an old exuberant issue of Wired from 1998).

First up, there is a post on the subject from O’Reilly Radar titled If Everyone Thinks It’s a Bubble, It’s Not a Bubble. This quite frankly is an idiotic title. I’m not a VC, but near the end of dot-com boom, even I and everbody knew that things were undervalued and it was a bubble. Still, many people thought they could cash out in time. Anyhow, despite that disappointing start, this article redeems itself with the following insight

Here at Web 2.0, no one believes the mania, at least not yet. No one thinks, as they did in 1999, that we’re looking at new technologies that will, say, wipe away bricks and mortar retailers and leave online businesses in their place. No one believes that old and powerful industries are about to be destroyed en masse by the rise of asynchronous Javascript or data as the Intel inside. These Web 2.0 markers are great developments, and are enabling great applications to get attention and immediately dominate the Web applications they replace. They’ve clearly valuable. As of yet, though, Web 2.0 is a revision of the Web and what has been built on it, not a revision of the world, which was the premise of the last bubble.

Which is very true. As much as we can joke and fret about the Web2.0 hype, it has not been on the level of the hype back in the previous bubble. Where the web was going to annihilate geography, change the way we shop, and connect us all in one happy hive-mind. Expectations are more realistic now on the technical side, but I do wonder if people still believe in Google and Yahoo too much.

From a different perspective, Fred Wilson has answered my silent prayers and given me an example of what a VC thinks about Web2.0 . Fred’s a really smart guy (I am only slightly biased because he’s an investor in Alacra), so I like to think he reflects the thinking among the smart money in the tech sector when he notes:

Last year at this time we were talking about interesting companies like Skype, Flickr, MySpace, etc.

Many of them are gone, gobbled up by the web 1.0 giants or the mainstream media companies.

In their places we are seeing second derivatives. I heard one business described as Google Maps meets delicious, and another described as Skype meets MySpace. When the first derivative hasn’t fully figured its long term business model (other than getting bought), the second derivates are pretty scary.

I am a contrarian at heart. This situation bothers me.

Translation: VCs won’t just fund your mashup because it’s cool. As I was ranting the other day, there has to be more to a business plan than hoping to be be bought by Yahoo or Google, and it’s even sillier to expect fame and riches from doing a mashup. Thankfully, rational voices are prevailing here, so the innovations of Web2.0 won’t be lost in the disappointment of a bubble bursting.

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My Job Went To India

Posted by Jacob Harris Fri, 30 Sep 2005 08:55:00 GMT

A pleasant surprise was waiting for me when I got home today. A copy of Chad Fowler’s excellent book My Job Went To India was waiting for me in the mail. I’m not sure that I can give an objective review (for reasons I’ll go into here), but if you are serious about making a career in programming, you should buy this book.

What Mr. Fowler does here is to take a fair and interesting look at how outsourcing has affected the field of software development. If you want a breathy ode to a flat world where we’re all information works or a hysterical screed against them foreigners taking jobs, this is not a book for you. But if you’re a programmer like me who likes to develop, but also wants to know how to control his career, this book has the pragmatic information you need.

The problem is, most software devlopers really don’t deserve their jobs more than a given developer in India or somewhere else (don’t fault them for their zeal and definitely do not underestimate their smarts). We usually fail in several ways:

  1. Skills. Have you learned any new technologies in the last year? How much do you control how you design and implement things, or do you just mindlessly code specs given from on high?
  2. Business. Any developer can see the technical dimensions of a problem, but very few are able to grasp the business side of their jobs. Do you know your business domain? Do you understand how the bottom line at your company works?
  3. Communication. The stereotype of the developer as a lone wolf working strange hours and sitting sullenly in a dark office is often all too true. This needs to change. If the CEO of your company doesn’t understand what you do, why exactly would he think it couldn’t be done better in India?
  4. Marketing. There is a world outside of your company. Should you lose your job, what sort of network do you have to draw on? And what exactly would convince an employer to hire you?
  5. Passion. Finally, are you sure you even want to be a developer in the first place? Is this a career you fell into, or one you want to fight for?

As I was noting earlier, self promotion is one of biggest failings of geeks these days. I realized this was my biggest problem last year, but I’m glad to see such an authoritative and well-crafted examination of the problem in Chad’s book.

Which brings me to why I must concede I can’t give an entirely objective review to this book. Around six months ago, I decided to get more involved in the online community. I started blogging, and I started reading blogs of alpha geeks whose judgements I respected. This included people in the Ruby on Rails community, and Chad’s blog was one of them. A short time later, Chad asked for test readers for his draft manuscript, and I offered to help. He accepted me as a test editor, and i enjoyed the experience immensely. It was a great way to test the strength of his book and correct weaknesses, and I have to commend Chad for it. And I’m proud I could help out and become more involved with my career in the process. It’s a good book. Buy it. It’s worth it.

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